Global Economic Outlook conference 2018

Trade, central banks and governments: Policies are shifting

Join our Global Economic Outlook conference organized by STATEC, the Chambre de Commerce Luxembourg and Oxford Economics. The conference will touch upon global and European issues such as the escalating trade war and Brexit as well as the implications on global financial markets. The conference will take place at the Chambre de Commerce Luxembourg in 7, Rue Alcide de Gasperi, Luxembourg/Kirchberg.

Agenda   

09:00  Registration
           Welcome coffee and tea 

09:30  Introduction 
           Opening remarks by Carlo Thelen, General Director Chambre de Commerce Luxembourg

09:45  Global Economic Outlook: Global expansion: robust yet fragile
            Gabriel Sterne, Head of Global Macro Research, Oxford Economics 

• Inflation, unfavourable policies, and tightening liquidity make markets nervous
• Pockets of credit risk and low bank profitability pose dangers to the financial system
• Expansions don’t die of old age, but age can foster fragilities; warning lights are on amber
• Trade wars quite damaging to date; but its the escalation scenarios that would be very damaging

10:30  European Economic Outlook: Domestic resilience keeps ECB on normalisation path
            Oliver Rakau, Lead Eurozone Economist and Chief German Economist, Oxford Economics

• Strong labour market bolsters domestic demand outlook
• ECB remains on course to the QE exit
• Slowing global trade and US trade wars threaten exporters

11:15  Coffee break 

11:30  Equities, Asset Prices and Investment Strategies: A fork in the road for global investors
           Gaurav Saroliya, Director of Global Macro Strategy, Oxford Economics                  

• After confidently buying the US equity dip this year, we see a fork in the road
• One path leads to more synchronous growth and recovery in non-US markets (better than 50% probability)
• But another leads to a further weakening of global risk appetite (40% probability)
• But these probabilities aren’t static and the scores are shifting fast

12:15  Closing remarks
           Serge Allegrezza, General Director STATEC 

12:30  Drinks reception and finger food

Online registration on: https://resources.oxfordeconomics.com/luxembourg-conference-november-2018